Note: We at The Seahawk not only understand but support the nation’s undying love affair with the NFL. In an effort to do our part, we’ve decided to install a weekly series of NFL discussions. Picks and analysis from Mcleod Brown, Cam Ellis, Evan Edwards and John Levering. Agree? Disagree? Let us know what you think @TheSeahawk

 

Staff: We’re excited to finally give this a shot. The world needs more NFL opinions! All we really want to do is talk about next week’s Denver-Jacksonville line (Denver -27.5!!!!) but alas, we all have to wait a week. In the mean time, there are still games being played this week, and some good ones at that. Without further ado: 

Kansas City (-3.5) at Tennessee:

Ellis: I still can’t believe the Chiefs are 4-0. They won two games all last season. Who knew that a 2-14 team was only a recycled quarterback-head coach combo away from being one of the best in the AFC? The Chiefs look great, Alex Smith’s career looks revived, and Andy Reid looks like the Kool-Aid man. The QB gets all the credit, but- and it’s not a new narrative- Kansas City’s resurgence is all about their defense. On D, they rank 1^st in points allowed, 7^th in yards allowed and only 14.8% of drives against them result in scoring possessions. The Chiefs have a stingy run defense and Chris Johnson hit the 30-year-old running back wall at 28. Kansas City over Tennessee.

Brown: Kansas City and Andy Reid’s resurgence is nothing short of remarkable. Their perfect start leaves them in the same conversation with more heralded teams like Seattle, Denver, New England and New Orleans. Now, facing a Titans team that just lost their starting quarterback Jake Locker to injury, Reid and his army of forget-me-nots appear in prime position to push their record to 5-0. Kansas City over Tennessee.

 Levering: I would have spent a lot more time looking at this matchup, but then Jake Locker got hurt. Kansas City over Tennessee.

Baltimore (+3) at Miami

Ellis: At least one of you has to share my Joe-Flacco-is-the-highest-paid-player-in-the-NFL skepticism. I can’t be the only one who thinks this, can I? There’s no doubt he’s a good player, maybe even a great one. With that said, I think Flacco is more Phillip Rivers than he is Peyton Manning. Not singing a contract extension before the 2012 season may have been the riskiest/smartest move of his career. Miami’s defense is overrated, and I think this is the week we look back on as the start of a productive 2013 season from Ray Rice. I say this purely because I’m starting him this week. Ravens over Miami.

 Brown: Let it be known first and foremost that I am a Ravens fan. Judge me now as a bandwagoner since they just won the Lombardi…(still waiting)…and we’re back. But seriously, although Flacco is overpaid, the fact remains that the man earned his money with that 11 touchdown, no interception postseason run. However, his receiving core behind Torrey Smith is nonexistent. Luckily for the offense, the defense has slightly improved from last year. On the other side of things, Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins are coming off their first loss of the season, and return home to host the Ravens, who are winless on the road this year. Nevertheless, as stated before, I am biased on this one. Ravens over Miami.

Levering: I’m with Mr. Ellis on the Joe Flacco issue, but for me the skepticism isn’t only about Flacco, but the Ravens, in general. The most perplexing thing about the Ravens in recent years is John Harbaugh’s use of Ray Rice. Despite Rice being a three-time Pro Bowler, he has seen a waning role in Baltimore’s offense over the past few seasons. This season is no exception. The leading rusher for Baltimore is Bernard Pierce, who has 151 yards on 56 carries, which is nearly double Rice, who has 89 yards on 30 carries. The Ravens also have a -2 turnover differential. They have turned the ball over 8 times, while recording 6 takeaways.

The Dolphins are 3-1 so far, but I’m not entirely sold on them either. Ryan Tannehill has put up very average numbers, ranking 14^th in passing yards and 18^th in passing touchdowns. His 5 INTs haven’t helped either. In this matchup I see two teams that both have misleading records, but room for improvement. The Dolphins need to get more production out of their running game. Through four games, Miami is averaging 81.5 yards per game. Baltimore needs to find a way to get Ray Rice more involved in the offense and they need people on the defensive side to step up and replace some of the guys they lost last year (i.e. Ray Lewis and Ed Reed). I think Baltimore has more upside than the unproven Dolphins. Ravens over Miami.

Jacksonville (+11.5) at St. Louis

Ellis: Jacksonville is starting to look historically bad, but I think Vegas gave St. Louis a bit too much benefit of the doubt for playing a home game. The Rams looked terrible against the 49’ers last Thursday and while Jacksonville is certainly not San Francisco, where there’s smoke, there’s fire. I think Jeff Fisher is eyeing that USC job more than people think. Jacksonville over St. Louis

Brown: It’s hard to imagine being anything worse than a Jaguars’ fan in today’s NFL world. Hell, even Cleveland is showing life again. Jacksonville on the other hand is in full rebuilding mode (once again), with a new regime appearing primed to jettison any leftovers for the right price. Meanwhile, the Rams and the always-underachieving-yet-always-excused Sam Bradford cannot seem to get out of the mud, either. Nevertheless, it’s hard seeing the Jaguars win a game currently. Say some Hail Marys for Maurice Jones-Drew. St. Louis over Jacksonville.

Levering: I think St. Louis will win this game, but I think the spread is favorable to Jacksonville. For humanity’s sake, I hope Jacksonville wins, because the Tim Tebow to Jacksonville rumbling has grown with each loss. St. Louis wins, but in terms of the spread I’ll take the Jags. Jacksonville and the points over St. Louis.

New England (+1) at Cincinnati

Ellis: Similar to the Chiefs, I’m throwing the Pats in the “I can’t believe they’re 4-0” subcategory. Wins against the Bills, Jets and Pre-Mike Glennon Bucs gave New England a lovely 3 game pillow that they will be thrilled to have down the line when their schedule gets tough. I was impressed with their win in Atlanta, although if the Falcons keep losing at home, that win depreciates quite a bit. Losing Wilfork for the year is huge both on the field and in the locker room: Big Vince was a crucial part of an underrated Pats run defense, and I expect the Bengals to exploit that early and often. I’m fascinated with Aqib Talib-AJ Green matchups and terrified of Geno Atkins. Bengals over Pats

Brown: Pats over Bengals

Levering: I find the QB matchup intriguing for this game. Bengal’s Andy Dalton is by all definitions an average QB, but he has AJ Green and TE Jermaine Gresham. On the Pats side of the ball Tom Brady is one of the best in the league, but this year he has had a mixed bag of targets so far this season. Without Rob Gronkowski and with Danny Amendola questionable, Brady is relying mainly on Julian Edelman and Kenbrell Thompkins. While that matchup is interesting, Brady and his rag-tag group of WRs outweigh Dalton and AJ Green. The biggest key to this game revolves around the running game. The Bengals are 10^th in run defense and the Pats are 9^th in the run game. After losing Shane Vereen to an injury, the Pats have turned to Stevan Ridley and LeGarette Blount. However, Ridley, the team’s leading rusher, is listed as a game-time decision with a bruised thigh. Based on the uncertainty of who’s going to play for the Pats, I think the Bengals will sneak by. Bengals over Pats.

Seattle (-3) at Indianapolis

Ellis: This is the most intriguing game of the week, right? Seattle is very much human on the road, and I think their Week 4 win in Houston was more a Houston loss than a Seattle win. I think this game is a big test for Andrew Luck. For all his (mostly deserved) praises, the one knock on Luck is that he turns the ball over much too frequently. He threw 18 interceptions last year, but has only thrown 2 so far in 2013. Seattle has the league’s top take-away defense, with 7 interceptions through 4 games. The Seahawks don’t have quite the same confidence on the road, however, and they’re coming off a draining win in Houston. Indianapolis over Seattle

Brown: Indianapolis over Seattle

Levering: I’m interested to see when Trent Richardson will start to make an impact for Indy. That’s not a knock on Richardson; obviously, it takes time to learn the playbook and such. Once Richardson gets going for Indy, I think the Colts will be one of the favorites in the AFC, but I’m not sold that this week will be Richardson’s week. This matchup features two of the best defenses in the NFL, the Colts are 4^th and the Seahawks are 2^nd.  I normally don’t bet against Seattle’s defense, and this week is no exception. I think Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch will put enough points on the board to escape the Colts. Seattle over Indy.

Detroit (+7) at Green Bay

Ellis: Green Bay over Detroit.

Brown: In what very well may be the highest-scoring game on the docket for the week, an NFC North leader and a below-.500 division foe meet. It may not be the way you pictured it though- the Lions coming in as the 3-1 team. Just like last year, it’s taking some time for the Pack to get their game going. Lambeau Field can do that to you. Green Bay over Detroit.

Levering: Green Bay needs to win coming off their bye-week. Yes, I went there: this is a must-win for Green Bay. Aaron Rogers has been a lone bright spot for the Packers this year. With RB James Starks out for Sunday’s game, Eddy Lacy will need to step up and help ease the burden for Rogers. Detroit’s defense has been a strength so far with a +4 turnover differential. On the flipside, Green Bay has a -2 turnover differential this year. Detroit has two viable options at RB, Reggie Bush and Joique Bell, and the best WR in the NFL, Calvin Johnson. I think this game will end up being a shoot-out, but I don’t think the Packers defense has the firepower to stop Detroit. Detroit over Green Bay.

New Orleans (-1) at Chicago

Ellis: I’ve officially bought my ticket on the Mark Trestman bandwagon! The QB genius/wizard/Canadian has Jay Cutler playing some of the best football of his career. This is very much the prototypical Chicago Bears first 1/4^th of a season, though. Lets not forget the 2012 Bears started off 7-1, finished 10-6, missed the playoffs and irrationally fired one of the better coaches in the NFL. Still on the Trestman bandwagon though! As for the Saints, Dennis Green says it better than I ever could. Chicago over New Orleans

Brown: Canadians gunna Canadia, or Canada, or be Canadian, or win football games in the NFL? It’s definitely a good start to the Trestman era in Chicago. On the flip side, Sean Payton has made his return to N’awlins in full force, leading the Saints to an undefeated record so far. Jimmy Graham recently earned NFC Offensive Player of the Month, the first tight end in history to do so. Man can ball, and play football. Surprisingly enough, the Saints’ defense has stepped up their game significantly a year after allowing the most passing yards in NFL history, currently ranking sixth in that category. Alas, seven days of the week, Brees > Cutler, except maybe in the wife category. http://i.perezhilton.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/kristin-cavallari-jay-cutler-wedding-set__oPt.jpg New Orleans over Chicago.

Levering: (Jay Cutler will still look sad and he’ll probably take his displeasures out on his O-Line, but I’ll take), Chicago over New Orleans.

 

Philadelphia (+2) at NY Giants

Ellis: Has there been a more confused fan base over the past decade than the New York Giants? One year they’re making dramatic runs through the postseason with the help of first-ballot Hall of Fame quarterback Eli Manning and beloved coach Tom Coughlin, other years they’re the worst team in the NFL, Eli’s throwing interceptions at the same rate Peyton’s throwing touchdowns and Tom Coughlin wakes up every morning with ‘for sale’ signs in his front yard. Through four games this year, Eli has thrown nine interceptions. Nine! Couple that with a 56.3 completion rating and a complete absence of anything resembling a running game, and Big Blue might be in for a long year. Battle for Mediocrity is the name of the game in the NFC East this year, so if there’s a division where the Giants might still have a chance, it’s theirs. I don’t see them going to 0-5, especially against a division rival at home. NY Giants over Philadelphia

Brown: Well, the Chip Kelly enigma did not last long, as the Eagles enter their bout with the winless Giants sitting at 1-3. This game pits two awful fan bases for two awful teams in what will be an awful game. While Kelly’s fast-paced offense was the bee’s knees at Oregon, it’s taken some time to get going in the pros. Meanwhile, Big Blue is due for a win, as is David Wilson to live up to that preseason hype with Da’Rel Scott off the roster. New York over Philadelphia.

Levering: Eli Manning vs. Michael Vick. Man, what a great storyline that was back in the day circa 2009.  The buzz around Chip Kelly’s offense after Week 1 was truly unbelievable. I think the words “revolutionary,” and “here to stay” were thrown around by analysts around the country. Much like the failed “Fun-‘N-Gun” offense that Steve Spurrier ran in his two years as Redskins’ coach, Kelly’s offense has been highly praised before people understood it. For Kelly’s sake, I hope his NFL coaching career doesn’t suffer the same fate as Spurrier’s. There is no way the Giants go 0-5 and have Tom Coughlin on the sidelines for Week 6. If Eli Manning can limit himself to say one or two turnovers, I think the Giants will prevail. Giants over Eagles.

Carolina (-2) at Arizona

Ellis: Carolina over Arizona

Brown: Lost in the shuffle that was the greatness of last year’s quarterback class is the once-heralded-and-since-forgotten Cam Newton. Lest we forget, the man is a physical beast. 6’5”, 250, I can’t think of another quarterback I’d be more scared of running at me head-on in the open field.  He seems to have regained his swagger from last year’s late-season stretch as well, currently holding a 91.9 quarterback rating with six touchdowns and two picks. DeAngelo Williams also appears revived due to Jonathan Stewart’s injury, averaging 4.7 yards per carry. Interestingly enough, in Newton’s first game as a pro, he went 24-37 passing for 422 yards, two touchdowns and a pick against the Cardinals, finishing with a 110.4 passer rating and rushing touchdown. So there’s that. Carolina over Arizona.

Levering: Carolina over Arizona.

 

Denver (-7.5) at Dallas

Ellis: At what point does the dreaded “U” word (undefeated) find it’s way onto the 11 p.m. SportsCenter? Like literally everyone predicted, Peyton Manning with a year of recovery under his belt is far better in every statistical category than Peyton Manning without a year of recovery under his belt. Some numbers to drool over so far: 75% completion, 16 TD’s, 0 interceptions. He has a 91.38 QBR, but I’ll be honest, I’m still not entirely sure what QBR means. Last year, Mark Sanchez had a 23.37 QBR, so I’ll go ahead and assume that 91 is pretty good. I’m putting my interest in Denver on hold until the postseason, though. Manning’s going to define his time in Denver with the success or failure in the playoffs. Is he going to make that one poor decision that playoff Peyton is known for?

Brown: Peyton Manning. That’s all I got. Denver over Dallas.

Levering: This one is tempting for me. I want to say Denver, but that seems too easy. Dallas has this odd ability to win games against better teams, but lose against teams they should beat. Tony Romo sometimes looks unstoppable (operative word is sometimes). Plus, it’s only Week 5, so without a playoff game on the line, Romo is poised to have a decent game. That being said, I think Denver has too many options on the offensive side of the ball, and on special teams with Trindon Holliday. And Denver has that guy they call, Peyton Manning. I think Denver will win, but I don’t think it will be as easy as it has been for them so far. (Reluctantly) Denver over Dallas.

Houston (+6.5) at San Francisco

Ellis: If after last season someone asked me which breakout NFC West team would take a step back in 2013, I would have placed my money on Seattle. As NFL defenses figure out the “mystical” read option, Colin Kaepernick suddenly looks human. It’s the unfortunate premature nature of every NFL fan to judge a player’s worth on a small sample size, and I fear Kaepernick might have fallen into this category. He’s unquestionably talented and still a great quarterback, but I think the Kaepernick we saw single-handedly embarrass Green Bay in the 2012 NFC divisional game was an aberration, not the norm. I’m just surprised I got through a paragraph of overrated quarterback discussions without mentioning Matt Schaub once. San Fran Over Houston

Brown: Houston over San Fran

Levering: Intriguing matchup between an underperforming SF team and a Houston team that is still struggling to find out how to reach the next level. I see SF’s defense turning the corner this week, despite losing Aldon Smith. I think the secondary will make an impact in the game, and I expect CB Carlos Rogers and FS Eric Reid to have INTs. Oh and since no one else is going to mention it, SF’s Donte Whitner has officially changed his last name to ‘Hitner.’ One can’t help but wonder the impact that will have on Houston WRs’ psyche. Of course the reasons for my mentioning SF’s secondary so much are entirely based on Matt Schaub and his tendency to throw INTs. This week Schaub had a sandwich named after him at a Houston restaurant. What is the name? The pick-six. SF over Houston.  

 

San Diego (-4.5) at Oakland

Ellis: San Diego over Oakland

Brown: The game of the week for all you night-owls out there who enjoy watching football at 11:35 on a Sunday night. Philip Rivers has revived his career this season after throwing 35 interceptions the past two years. For the Black & Silver, Terrelle Pryor is trying to show that he’s a franchise quarterback with a dearth of talent around him. The Black Hole is the X-factor here, and the Raiders always seem to play up and beyond at home. Plus, I need Pryor to go off for my fantasy team. Yes, it has already gotten to that point for me. Oakland over San Diego.

Levering: This decision is solely based on Oakland’s performance last week. In case you missed it, they lost at home to the Washington Redskins, who are 1-3 (and not the good or optimistic kind of 1-3, like say, the Falcons). San Diego over Oakland.