Hurricane predictions updated: Numbers expected to increase

Alisha Gore

As we enter the peak of hurricane season, experts are predicting that this year’s season will be even more active than they originally thought. “Many of the hurricanes this season will develop over the tropical Atlantic and move westward as they strengthen. These hurricanes could pose a threat to the United States and/or the Caribbean Islands,” said Dr. Gerry Bell, head of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s seasonal prediction team in a recent news release. Forecasters are now predicting 12 to 15 tropical storms and seven to nine hurricanes, including three to four major hurricanes with winds of at least 111 mph. The average hurricane season brings ten tropical storms and six hurricanes. The 1995-2002 time span has been the most active period in the past 50 years. Forecaster William Gray also updated his predictions, saying that the majority of the hurricanes will be forming in October. This raises concern among individuals in southeastern North Carolina, especially those who reside in Wilmington. Within the past ten years, the Wilmington, NC area has been hit by four major hurricanes: Bertha and Fran in 1996, Bonnie in 1998 and Floyd in 1999. These hurricanes cost the area millions of dollars in damage. Therefore, it is a wise idea for UNCW students to learn the policies that are in place in New Hanover County and at UNCW concerning hurricane evacuation and school closure. In 2000, a year after hurricane Floyd hit eastern North Carolina, UNCW revised its hurricane policy. The university currently has a three-phase plan corresponding to the National Weather Service’s issuing of a hurricane warning for Wilmingon. “There’s not much different in the hurricane plan itself, but it’s giving us a broader plan for all crisis situations,” said Terry Curran, Dean of students. “I’m comfortable where we are right now.” A committee is currently working on further improving the hurricane and crisis plan. UNCW reserves the right to evacuate the campus before the evacuation and closure of New Hanover County beaches. This system is designed to allow students enough time to evacuate campus and arrive safely at their homes or another alternative destination. Once the NWS issues a hurricane warning, university officials evaluate the weather situation, based on how fast the storm is moving, the size and strength of the storm, and the amount of daylight left before mandatory evacuation. They then may cancel classes and issue a voluntary evacuation. Once New Hanover County officials close the beaches, UNCW issues a mandatory evacuation. Hurricane warnings are typically issued between 24 and 36 hours before 40 mph winds are expected to reach land. Those students who are unable to go home or anywhere else are set up with host families in the area during the duration of the hurricane. Students who do not return home during the duration of the hurricane are advised to let their families know of their whereabouts. For up to date information on class cancellations and evacuations during hurricane weather, call the university’s hurricane hotline at 962-3991, or toll free at (888) 657-5751. For more information on this season’s predictions, visit the National Hurricane Center at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.