We at The Seahawk not only understand but support the nation’s undying love affair with the NFL. In an effort to do our part, we’ve decided to install a weekly series of NFL discussions. All picks and analysis are brought to you by Cam Ellis and John Levering. Agree? Disagree? Let us know what you think @TheSeahawk

Jacksonville at (-13) Tennessee

Levering: Are the Jaguars still going to be the Jaguars, when Roger Goodell moves them to London? I would love to know the answer to that. The Jags didn’t lose last week, which was a change of pace, but they also didn’t play a game. The Titans snapped a three-game skid with their win over the St. Louis Rams. I know it’s relatively early in the season, but the Titans are only one game out of the Wild Card in the AFC, which is shocking to say the least. They trail the Jets, so I’m not sure what is more shocking.

The Titans are the better team, no one in their right mind would claim otherwise, but they have a lot of room to improve, especially if they want to make a playoff push. RB Chris Johnson has been up and down this season. Last week, he had 150 yards on 23 carries for two TDs en route to a Titans victory. In the four weeks before beating the Rams, Johnson didn’t fare as well. In those four weeks, he averaged 27.5 yards on 11.5 carries. It’s no coincidence that the Titans were 1-3 during Johnson’s poor performance. This week Johnson and the Titans face the worst run defense in the NFL. The Jaguars give up an average of 161.8 yards a game, which is 30 yards per game higher than the Pittsburgh Steelers, the 31^st worst run defense.

The Jaguars struggles are a plenty this season. They don’t have a reliable QB, their defense is anemic, and Maurice Jones-Drew hasn’t been effective running the football. Not to mention the fact that the NFL has suspended Jacksonville’s best playmaker, WR Justin Blackmon, indefinitely for repeated failed drug tests. This is a perfect opportunity for the Titans to improve to 5-4, and for Chris Johnson to build on last week’s success. Titans over Jaguars.

Philadelphia at (-1) Green Bay

Levering: I always write my analysis and make my picks on Saturdays. If this game had happened last week, I might have written something along the lines of “Green Bay wins this game by 100,” or I might have come up with various hypotheses about which QB the Eagles should draft in April. But then the Week 9 games happened, and well things changed. The Packers’ four-game winning streak snapped with a loss against the Bears on Monday Night Football, and the Eagles dismantled the Raiders, 49-20.

Oh, and there was Nick Foles. He completed 22 of 28 passes for 406 yards and a casual seven TDs.  That’s right, Nick Foles had more touchdown passes last week than incompletions. It didn’t quite seem real, so I had to look into the numbers a little bit more. The Eagles are 3-0 this season, when Nick Foles throws multiple TDs. Foles, also, has not thrown an INT this season. And who said there isn’t parity in the NFL?

The Packers received bad news last week, when QB Aaron Rodgers was injured against the Bears. Rodgers’ fractured collarbone has him sidelined indefinitely. Now, the Packers have to rely on QB Seneca Wallace. The Packers had a lethal offense this season, but that pace is likely not going to hold up, while Rodgers is out. The Packers are ranked 2^nd in total yards and 3^rd in points scored. The key for the Packers will be the run game, which has been a bright spot this season. Green Bay ranks 2^nd in yards per attempt (5.0 yards/attempt) and 3^rd in rushing yards.

The Packers have a chance this week, because of the Eagles’ shaky defense. Philadelphia ranks 21^st in points allowed and 32^nd in yards allowed. Their run defense is markedly better than their pass defense. The Eagles are ranked 14^th in rushing yards allowed and are tied for 18^th in rushing TDs allowed. Philadelphia’s pass defense is so bad that Seneca Wallace might even be able to exploit it. The Eagles are ranked 32^nd in passing yards allowed, and collectively as a defense the Eagles are ranked 32^nd in first downs allowed. Not a great recipe for winning football games, but the Eagles are currently 4-5 and are only one game behind the Cowboys for 1^st in the NFC East.

I’m torn on this game. I want to pick the Eagles, but they have the boom or bust style of play that makes it hard to feel confident picking them. It’s equally as difficult to get behind Seneca Wallace. Nothing that happens in this game will surprise me, because when Nick Foles and Seneca Wallace go against each other all bets are off. (Reluctantly) Eagles over Packers.

Buffalo at (-3) Pittsburgh

Levering: The Bills have a better record than the Steelers. It’s Week 10 of the NFL and the Bills are 3-6, and the Steelers are 2-6. Last week, the Steelers lost to the Patriots 55-31 (yes, those Patriots, the ones who have struggled offensively all year). The Bills lost to the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs 23-13, but the way the Bills lost was both hopeful and heartbreak, if you’re a Buffalo fan.

The Bills gave up two defensive TDs to the Chiefs (one came off an INT and the other a fumble recovery), which was the deciding factor in Buffalo’s loss. With 12:30 to go in the 3^rd quarter the score was 10-3 Buffalo, and the Bills had a win probability of 91.2%. Fast-forward one minute and thirty-two seconds, the score is 10-10 with 10:58 left in the 3^rd quarter, and the Bills had a win probability of 43.2%. I could keep going, but I’ll spare Bills’ fans the trauma of reliving last week. Good news for Bills’ fans: Jeff Tuel isn’t playing QB this week. Rookie E.J. Manuel is expected to lineup under center for Buffalo.

The biggest advantage Buffalo has this week is their run game. The Bills rank 2^nd in rushing attempts and 7^th in rushing yards. RBs Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller (Spiller isn’t listed on the Injury Report, but he is still recovering from an ankle injury, but that won’t change much for the Bills if he isn’t able to play) have provided incredible balance for Buffalo this year. This week, that will only improve, especially with the return of Manuel, who is, also, a threat to run. The Steelers run defense is virtually non-existent. Pittsburgh allows 131.3 rushing yards per game, and has allowed 12 rushing TDs this season, which ties them for 31^st in that category.

The Bills’ defense is nowhere near great, but neither is the Steelers’ offense. If the Bills can continue to run the football with success, they will improve to 4-6 this week. Bills over Steelers.

 

Oakland at (-7) New York Giants

Levering: The Giants are coming off their bye, but they have a two-game winning streak going, entering this week’s matchup against the Raiders. Oakland is coming off a 49-20 loss to the Eagles. Oakland has not fared well against the NFC East this season, going 0-2 against arguably the worst division in the NFL.

The Giants started the season 0-6, but have improved to 2-6. The biggest difference for New York has been Eli Manning. Specifically, Eli Manning not throwing INTs. In their two wins, Eli Manning has not thrown an INT, but in their six losses, Manning has thrown at least one INT and has had four games with three or more INTs. That is a large reason why the Giants are ranked 32^nd in turnover differential (-12). RB David Wilson was placed on the Injured Reserve this week, but prior to that the Giants’ run game had been abysmal, ranking 29^th in rushing attempts and 30^th in rushing yards.

The Raiders have been a running team this season, ranking 5^th in rushing yards and 8^th in attempts. Oakland ranks 29^th in passing attempts and 30^th in passing yards, but that is not to say QB Terrelle Pryor is not doing a decent job for the Raiders. Last week Pryor went 22-41 with 288 yards passing and two INTs. Not great numbers, but he also added 94 yards rushing on 10 attempts. Pryor’s legs are a large part of why he’s been effective for Oakland (or at least, as effective as a Raiders’ QB could be).

There are two areas that will determine the outcome of this game. The first is the turnover battle. Again, it comes down to Eli Manning’s ability to not throw INTs. Obviously, the same can be said for Oakland, but this year the Giants have had a more dramatic problem in limiting turnovers. The other area is the Raiders’ ability to run the football, and the Giants ability to stop it. New York ranks 6^th in rushing yards allowed. Oakland isn’t going to beat anyone strictly throwing the football, so they have to be able to move the ball on the ground, and ultimately get it in the end zone.

One headline this week (I couldn’t make this up if I tried) from The Star Ledger, a New Jersey newspaper, read, “Will Terrelle Pryor, Raiders end Big Blue’s postseason dream?” Giants’ columnists still believe there is hope for a postseason run. Man, I thought DC columnists were bad when it came to the Redskins’ postseason hopes, but this might take the cake. Regardless of the outcome this week, I think those dreams should’ve ended at some point during their 0-6 start. Raiders over Giants.

St. Louis at (-9.5) Indianapolis

Levering: St. Louis enters this week in the midst of their second three-game losing streak this season, and it might become their first four-game losing streak after their trip to Indianapolis. The Colts are coming off a Sunday Night Football win against the Houston Texans. A very shaky, big come-from-behind win against Houston.

The Colts are a balanced football team that does a great job of protecting the football. Indianapolis ranks 7^th in points allowed, 7^th in turnover differential, and 8^th in points scored. They have only turned the ball over six times this year. To put that in perspective, during the Rams’ current three-game losing streak, St. Louis has turned the ball over seven times. The Colts should have an easier time this week, since the Rams’ starting QB is still Kellen Clemens.

The Rams’ offense has struggled this season, and losing QB Sam Bradford did not help. St. Louis ranks 23^rd in points scored and 30^th in yards gained. That won’t improve much this week against the Colts. Indianapolis DE Robert Mathis has 11.5 sacks this season and will be a large factor in throwing Clemens for a loop.

The Colts struggled in the first half last week against a 2-6 Houston team, but to be fair, the Texans have underachieved mightily this season. This week the Colts will be ready to solidify their lead atop the AFC South (Colts are currently two games ahead of the Titans). Whenever the Colts can get RB Trent Richardson fully incorporated in the offense, they will be even more challenging, but that doesn’t make a huge difference this week. Colts over Rams.

Seattle (-4.5) at Atlanta

Levering: Remember last year when these two teams played in the playoffs? Not quite this year when the two face off. Seattle is 8-1 and has found plenty of different ways to win, and Atlanta is 2-6 and has been hampered by injuries all season. Seattle is coming off a near-loss to the winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Atlanta lost to the Carolina Panthers 34-10.

I don’t want to be one of the people that overreacts or reads too much into almost losing to the Bucs.  I took two things away from that game. One was the Seahawks are definitely beatable, and the second was it’s still the NFL; even the winless Bucs have a chance to win.

Seattle has not only been balanced, in terms of success on both sides of the football, but they have also been dominating. The Seahawks are ranked 2^nd in yards allowed, 3^rd in points allowed, 9^th in turnover differential, and 10^th in points scored. Prior to last week, Seattle had forced multiple turnovers in every game this season, which does not bode well for an Atlanta team that enjoys turning the ball over. The Falcons have had a turnover in all but one game this season, and during their current two-game losing streak, they have turned the ball over four times in each of those losses.

The Falcons’ defense is the big reason the Seahawks are favored in this game. Atlanta ranks 21^st in yards allowed and 25^th in points allowed. Both their run defense and their pass defense are to blame for Atlanta’s struggles defensively. Atlanta ranks 19^th in passing yards allowed, 21^st in rushing yards allowed, and 29^th in passing TDs allowed. Seattle’s ability on offense, both in the run game and the pass game, makes this a poor matchup for Atlanta.

Last time I picked Atlanta to win, I got burned. The Falcons got shelled by Arizona. I mean, who saw that coming, right? Atlanta is too up-and-down, for me to feel confident picking this week. Seahawks over Falcons.

Miami (-2.5) at Tampa Bay

Levering: I wonderhow mad the ESPN executives are that this is the Monday Night Football game this week. I, also, wonder who approved the Dolphins for two Monday Night Football games this season. Seeing as the audience for this article has been bombarded with reports about the Dolphins’ locker room problems, I will stay away from that. If you managed to avoid those reports and want to get caught up: fear not, I’m sure the MNF coverage will have plenty for you to indulge in.

The Bucs almost won last week against the Seahawks, nonetheless. The Dolphins won on a walk-off safety in overtime against the Bengals (I don’t think there could be a more Bengals’ way to lose). Right now, there are two teams that are 0-8 and both of them are from the state of Florida, which is allegedly a football hotbed. I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but the odds of having two teams go 0-16 in the same season are astronomical. They might even be worse than my odds on winning the Powerball.  

That being said, QB Mike Glennon has been doing his part to make sure Tampa Bay gets a win this year. He’s completed 123 out of 204 passes for 1,165 yards with 8 TDs and only 3 INTs, since replacing Josh Freeman. (Update for Bucs fans: Josh Freeman went to Minnesota and started one game, before losing his starting job to Christian Ponder. Freeman is now 3^rd on the depth chart.)

I’m going with the Bucs this week. They aren’t as bad as the Jaguars, who are the other candidate for a winless season, and they are coming off a good performance against the Seahawks. The Dolphins have a myriad of distractions and problems surrounding them, which is a recipe for poor performance. Buccaneers over Dolphins.

 

Cincinnati (-1.5) at Baltimore

Ellis: Boy, what a weird season it’s been in Baltimore. Are they a good enough to be a playoff team? Why does there seem to be relentless doubting of a defense that ranks in the top 10 in both points and yards allowed? WHERE IN THE WORLD IS RAY RICE? The frequently underutilized running back has 259 yards and 3 TD’s on the season. It shouldn’t come as a surprise, then, that the Ravens rank dead last in yards per rushing attempt, averaging a woeful 2.8 yards a carry.

Joe Flacco is having a very Joe Flaccoesque year, putting up those average numbers that at the time earned him the largest contract in the history of professional football. Yes, the 2012 playoff wins in Denver and New England on the back of a Super Bowl championship were all signs of an impending and substantial salary bump. But committing $120.6 million to a quarterback with a career passer rating of 85.6? Baltimore GM Ozzie Newsome is one of the best in the game, but that contract feels like a very expensive thank you note. Some other notable QB’s whose career passer rating sits in the mid 80’s:

Daunte Culpepper: 87.8

Jeff Garcia: 87.5

Shaun Hill: 85.9

David Garrard: 85.8

A small sample size, granted, but this is where Joe Flacco lies. Somewhere between Jeff Garcia and Shaun Hill. Cincinnati over Baltimore.

 

Detroit (PK) at Chicago

Quick disclaimer: “PK” stands for “pick,” which is a term used when no team is favored to win.

Ellis: The (possible) return of Jay Cutler! Excluding the NFC West, the title of most exciting division would without a doubt be given to the NFC North. Of the 4 teams that play in the division, three teams are tied for the division lead with a 5-3. The Lions, the Packers, and the Bears are all still fighting for division dominance. This game added an additional level of importance this week with the news that All-Universe Packers QB Aaron Rodgers would be out for 3-4 weeks with a fractured collarbone. Barring Green Bay backup Seneca Wallace becoming the NFL’s next 2001 Tom Brady, the winner of this game takes the drivers seat in the division race.

Unrelated, but I’d be remiss not to mention that the last the Detroit Lions were on the field, Calvin Johnson had 329 reception yards. That gargantuan performance fell 7 yards short of tying the all time record, which was Flipper Anderson’s 15 catch, 336 yard performance for the then Los Angeles Rams in a 1989 victory over the New Orleans Saints. Detroit has lost 9 out of the last 11 versus the Bears, but enter this week with the energy of a team coming off their bye week and the confidence of a team that won their last game, on the road, as time expired. Detroit over Chicago.

 

Carolina (+6) at San Francisco

Ellis: It’s been an interesting year for “Team A”. Preseason outlook was optimistic, but their success narratives were ultimately always bound to play second fiddle to their higher-profile division brother. They started slow out of the gate, losing 2 of 3 before firing off an impressively long win streak. A balanced running game and duel threat QB run the offense, and their stifling defense keeps them alive late into games. Who is this mystery team? Not San Francisco’s 49er squad, but the 2013 Carolina Panthers!

The Port City is abuzz with Panthers fans that can feel the excitement of what’s shaping up to be a Carolina team that could make a deep run. Cam Newton and co. have won 4 straight, the catch being that none of the teams they played were even remotely close to good. Their last 4 wins have come against the Vikings (2-7), the Rams (3-6), the Buccaneers (0-8), and the Falcons (2-6). If Steamin’ Willy Beaman taught us anything, it’s that any team can win any week, but the last month has been about as much of a cakewalk for Carolina as a NFL schedule can be. Carolina has all the tools to be a legit contender; having the 2^nd ranked defense paired and a dynamic QB who’s still coming into his prime isn’t a bad position to be in. I’ll take San Fran, but I’d be shocked and quite honestly a bit let down if they covered. San Fran over Carolina.

Houston (+3) at Arizona

Ellis: You have to pity Texans fans; Houston’s championship window closed about as fast as I’ve seen any championship window close. It wasn’t even two seasons ago when everyone and their mother had the Texans handling the league with ease on the way to their first ever Super Bowl title. Just to give you some perspective on how poorly Houston has played this year compared to outside expectations: the Texans are 1-7-0 against Vegas lines this year. Their takeaway differential is -1.4/g, which ranks 30^th in the NFL. Arian Foster is breaking down, Gary Kubiak is probably out the door come season’s end, and Houston is looking like a team who will soon have the chance to draft a franchise QB that isn’t David Carr. Derrick Carr, David’s younger brother, is a senior at Fresno State and is on quite a few Heisman ballots. I certainly hope that 10 years later, the Texans find a way to draft a Fresno State QB with the last name Carr as a potential franchise QB. Que the adage about learning from history. Arizona over Houston.

 

Denver (-7) at San Diego

Ellis: Broncos Head Coach John Fox suffered a heart attack during Denver’s bye week, so interim coach Jack Del Rio will take over while Fox rests. Denver: They’re going to play a divisional game, on the road, with an interim coach (who was last seen in 2011 being fired mid-season by the 3-8 Jacksonville Jaguars) and yet still be favored by a full touchdown. The power of Peyton Manning. Fox is expected to remain sidelined (pun partially intended) for 10 weeks, so Del Rio has a great chance to audition for the USC job, if it’s not already his.

I’d love to be a contrarian here, but when it’s a game featuring Peyton Manning and Phillip Rivers, it’s hard to look the other way. Both QB’s have had successful years that have been steadily documented. Rivers is having the most accurate year of his career, completing 73% of his passes. All the other QB awards go to Manning. Chargers WR and personal fantasy pick up of the year Kennan Allen has emerged as Rivers go-to target. I think Denver is looking ahead to next week’s matchup with Kansas City, and having Del Rio coach his first game on the road doesn’t seem like the ideal situation. I’m always a sucker for the home underdog, so I’ll take the points. San Diego over Denver.  

Dallas (+6) at New Orleans

Ellis: Another “make or break” game for Dallas, as everyone on a certain popular sports television station would love to inform you. Is there any real belief that Dallas’ season is going to end in a different fashion than it has in any of the previous, like, 10 years? They’re going to underachieve their way to an NFC East title and lose a home playoff game to either of the two wild card teams, both of which will be without a doubt the better football team. There will be 10 days of snarky Skins, Giants and Eagles fans talking about how bad Tony Romo is, 10 more days of unsure Cowboys fans supporting Romo, and a final 10 days of Jerry Jones making a lot of noise but not saying much. Everyone has seen this movie before. It wasn’t particularly enjoyable the first time, and it certainly isn’t interesting the 5^th time.

The same goes for New Orleans. What a tough, gritty underdog that plays in a weak division and has made the playoffs 3 of the last 5 years. Boy, those Saints players sure did catch a lot of grief for placing monetary values on hurting other players to the extent where they couldn’t return to the game.  You know what’s a fun, humorous read? Rob Ryan’s career numbers as a defensive coordinator. All these story lines would have been interesting 5 years ago. New Orleans over Dallas