Trump’s surprise victory

Sean W. Cooper | Staff Writer | @moviefreakblog

Never in my life has anything shocked me like this year’s election results. I was sure that America would be seeing a Hillary Clinton victory. The media had prophesied it. For the past six months, nearly every poll had leaned in her favor. Up until the very week of the election, she was the only candidate advertising on TV. Her favorability ratings were never good by any means, but the always managed to exceed her opponent’s. 

And despite all that, Donald J. Trump pulled through. If not “Make America Great Again,” the number-one rally sign we’ve seen at Trump events reads “The Silent Majority Stands with Trump.” I always doubted these signs as an excuse to dismiss Trump’s continual loss in the polls. And then I saw Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, solid blue states since 1988 and 1992 respectively, turn red.

Statistically, there was no silent majority, and seeing as Clinton won the popular vote, there was no silent plurality, either. But there were enough silent voters to sway the Electoral College in Trump’s favor. As 10 turned to 11 and 11 turned to midnight, we saw nearly every swing state, with the exceptions of Virginia and Nevada, turning out in Trump’s favor.

This is especially surprising amid the #NeverTrump movement in America. Millions of voting Republicans, including UNCW’s own Mike Adams, have renounced their support of now-President-elect Donald J. Trump since he announced his candidacy in June of 2015.

However, Trump’s surprise pull-through can be credited simply to voter turnout being higher than expected in some cases. Many individuals who have previously been politically uninvolved opted to join the electoral process this year, inspired by Trump’s message. These are men and women of all ages who are upset with the status quo and want to see change in America’s political system.

This includes former members of the steel industry, whose jobs would potentially return to the United States if Trump follows through with his promise to abandon the Trans-Pacific Partnership and renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement. This may account for Trump’s victory in Rust Belt states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

Any doubt about the change voters seek in establishment politics can be answered by exit polls taken on Election Day. As reported by the New York Times, when asked about President Obama’s job performance, 90 percent of those who disapproved were Trump voters. Additionally, 83 percent of those who named the most important quality in a candidate as being able to bring change were Trump voters, as well.

What is perhaps most surprising is that the election remained relatively unaffected by the now-infamous Access Hollywood tape, released during the first week of October, in which Trump engaged in a lewd conversation with anchor Billy Bush, describing his actions in a way that many deemed resemblant of sexual assault. According to CBS News, 92 percent of white, Republican men, and 91 percent of white, Republican women, voted for Trump.

Meanwhile, Clinton’s email scandals were perhaps a key determinant of the election. Had FBI director James Comey not chosen to continue the investigation of Clinton’s private email server less than two weeks from the election, and had Julian Assange at WikiLeaks not opted to disclose thousands of emails from campaign manager John Podesta starting a month from the election, we would have surely seen a Clinton victory.