Welcome, Madame President

Sean W. Cooper | Contributing Writer

There is no doubt in my mind about who will be the next President of the United States, and her name is not Donald Trump.

This reality becomes clear when looking at the swing states that have been ever-crucial to this election. Trump’s success has remained contingent on winning Ohio, Florida, Nevada and Colorado, along with North Carolina, a fading red state, and Iowa, a fading blue state. Looking at election forecasts from FiveThirtyEight, Slate, and The New York Times, the chances of any of those scenarios occurring appear rather slim.

There are many reasons for this. One is that Trump has no past experience in politics. My expectation was that the polls would flip as soon as he and Hillary Clinton had the opportunity to debate onstage. I was sure that Trump would destroy her. As it turns out, Trump does not know how to debate. In both debates thus far, his approach of ripping into Clinton like a rabid attack dog has fallen victim to her firm, unaffected demeanor. Regardless of whether he may be the more mature candidate, Clinton has effectively managed to convince the American people that she is.

Being an outsider, Trump has faced an uphill battle from the very beginning of his presidential candidacy. Ever since Trump accepted the nomination for the Republican Party, the question on our minds has not been, “can Clinton beat Trump?”, but rather, “can Trump beat Clinton?” Clinton has 30 years of experience in politics, so she has the home field advantage.

In her experience as a politician, Clinton has developed a strong understanding of which issues are important to the average American. Her campaign, therefore, has focused on items that were previously key to Bernie Sanders’ campaign, such as paid family leave, debt-free college tuition, increasing the minimum wage to a living wage, and increasing taxes on the wealthy.

Meanwhile, Trump has focused on policies where he feels the average American has been ripped off. His populist campaign has run into two problems when addressing what the American people want. One is that some of his policies are those that most Americans, unfortunately, do not think enough about. Trump has promised to reform the Department of Veterans Affairs and to repeal the North American Free Trade Agreement. These are great proposals, but they are not issues that most Americans might find accessible. Anyone who is not concerned about them now is not going to become concerned because of what one candidate says.

The second problem with Trump’s campaign is that some of his policies are just too radical for most Americans. A prime example is his immigration plan. A majority of Americans would agree that we need to reform our immigration process. However, many Americans disagree with Trump’s proposed approach. A recent CNN poll shows that 66 percent of Americans feel the government should not attempt to deport all illegal immigrants, 58 percent oppose building a wall on our border with Mexico, and 74 percent do not think it is likely Mexico would pay for the wall.

In contrast, Clinton has put forth a plan that would allow hardworking immigrants to stay and eventually apply for citizenship, rather than being deported. In the same CNN poll, 88 percent of the people surveyed said they agreed with this plan.

One major and very recent factor that certainly damages Trump’s chances is a tape that surfaced recently. The tape features a conversation between Trump and Access Hollywood’s Billy Bush, in which Trump makes several lewd comments about women, some of which suggest sexual assault. 

Although the recording dates back to 2005, it is safe to say that it will have a sincere influence on how Trump fares on Nov. 8. Shortly after the tape surfaced online, many names in the Republican Party pulled their support for Trump, including House Speaker Paul Ryan, former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Sen. John McCain, along with five other senators. Some Republicans, including seven senators, have even called for Trump to drop out of the race and allow Mike Pence to lead the party’s ticket instead.

Given that Trump’s supporters among Republicans in the Senate are now 24 percent fewer, there is little doubt that his support among the American people has shrank to a significant degree, as well.